Strategies to avert Slowdown in Economy
Background: Global GDP growth has been coming down (around 3%) over the years. The recent US-China trade war, currency devaluations by major economies and the volatile political and economic situations across the globe have been adding fuel to the fire. The Indian economy is also showing signs of downward spiral despite initiating bold and important reforms like GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), FDI liberalization, and better ease of doing business. Major sectors are drastically slowing down and layoffs are increasing. NITI Aayog opined that the current stress in the financial sector is unprecedented and urged government to initiate necessary steps to avert slowdown. In the above backdrop, the Finance Minister, Mrs. Sitharaman has announced the following slew of measures in August 2019 to take the reform process forward and to bring the economy on track. Banking/Finance Sector: Government announced upfront capital infusion of `70000 crore into PSBs to add liquidity to the financial system by generating fresh lending to the tune of `5 lakh crore.
Providing `20000 crore liquidity support in addition to `10000 crore support announced earlier by
National Housing Corporation (NHB), to the struggling Housing Finance Companies (HFC) to enhance their lending capacity. Directed the banks to pass on RBI rate cut benefits to the borrowers by introducing Repo or External Benchmark Linked rates to retail loans. Proposed to introduce online tracking of loan applications by customers of Retail, MSME, Housing, Vehicle and Working Capital limits with an aim to increase transparency and to improve Turn Around Time (TAT). Banks to issue improved transparent OTS policy to benefit to MSME and Retail borrowers with simplified procedure (Check box approach) Rationalization/Simplification of Taxes: Withdrawal of enhanced super-rich tax (imposed in the recent budget) on foreign and domestic equity investors. All tax notices to be issued from centralized system to end harassment of taxpayers. Start-ups will get exemption from “Angel Tax”. Pending GST refunds to MSMEs shall be paid within 30 days and future refund matters to be sorted out within 60 days. Corporate Tax: In order to encourage the domestic companies, the corporate tax rate is reduced from 30% to 22% for all existing companies and it is 15% for new manufacturing units that start production before 2023. The sharp cut in direct taxes has the potential to revive growth. MSME Sector: Amendment to MSME Act to move towards single definition to be considered. Use of GSTN system, in long run, to enhance market for bill discounting (TReDS). U K Sinha Committee recommendations on ease of credit, marketing, technology, delayed payments etc., are to be implemented within 30 days Automobile Sector: Increase of depreciation rate from existing 15% to 30% on all vehicles acquired from now till March 2020. Ban on govt departments lifted for purchase of vehicles to replace old ones. Government will come out with a ‘scrap age’ policy for old vehicles to revive demand for the already dented sector. Bond Market: Establish an organization to improve access to long term finance to Infrastructure and Housing projects. Development of Credit Default Swap market in consultation with RBI and SEBI. Infrastructure Industry has been reeling under stress on account of structural issues and delayed payments from Government/CPSEs, which need to be addressed on priority. Government announced that the issue of delayed payments is to be monitored by Department of Expenditure and reviewed by Cabinet Secretariat. Proposed to form “Inter-ministerial Task force” by Department of Economic Affairs to finalize the pipeline of infrastructure projects. Way forward: Hope, the measures initiated by the government, definitely paves the way to arrest slowdown and keep the economy on the growth path. Indian Economic Slowdown: A long term problem, how to come out of it? Indian Economy, no doubt is passing through a sluggish economic growth since 2016 as compared to earlier years, although Indian Economy is still showing positive growth at the rate which may not be considered as very slow, if we go by the global economic growth standards. The facts and background India’s Economic growth has slowed for 5 consecutive quarters beginning from late 2015-16 onwards. Now growth is slower than it was in the quarter in which The Modi Government assumed office. It could be serious blow for a government that had promised to turn around the economy through decisive governance. India’s GDP growth has gone down from a high of 9.2% in third Quarter of the year 2016 to 5.7% in current 4th
All four contributors to economic growth – domestic consumption, foreign consumption or exports, private investment and government spending – are hit by the slowdown. In the first quarter of this fiscal year, domestic consumption fell to 6.66% as against 8.41% in the same period last fiscal; exports as a share of the Gross Domestic Product was down to 19% from 20%; quarter of 2017. The economic growth rate is probably the slowest in last many years. However, Indian Economy as per global standard is not in recessionary stage. The UK and the European Union consider an economy in recession only when real GDP growth actually turns negative over two consecutive quarters and by this criterion, with a positive growth rate of 5.7%, Indian economy is far off from being in a recession.
and fixed capital formation decreased from about 31% of the GDP to 29.8%, signalling a slowdown in the industry as well. Causes of Economic slow down The cause of the problem as shared by some of the experts consists of supply-side shocks. Besides, three important contributors to this problem include Demonetisation & stressed banking sector, GST Implementation and problems in Agriculture sector. The public goods are provided by government and the government needs tax revenues to supply them, and these depend upon national income. Then there is employment. A demand for labour exists only when there is a demand for goods. So growth is necessary if employment is to be assured. There is not only a pool of unemployed persons in India to absorb but the country also needs to provide employment to youth continuously entering the labour force. The slowing of the economy is a source of concern as an economy that has been slowing for five quarters is unlikely to turn around quickly. Besides, it may not be able to revive on its own. No demand - No Investment: Vicious Circle operates Since it is capital formation, or investment, that drives growth in the economy, investment is an immediate source of demand as firms that invest buy goods and services to do so. It also expands the economy’s capacity to produce. The two sources of investment are private and public. The Private investment source is depressed as of now due to the factors cited above and is difficult to revive unless some external force is applied for example – tax sops, incentives for investment, creating demand for certain products through public funded projects among others. When there is no demand, supply has to be stopped due to piling up of stocks and production units go idle, leading to cut in labour force. It further reduces the income leading to less demand and further reduction in supply and stopping of production. Since, investment involves committing funds for a long period under uncertainty, the stepping-up of public investment when private firms are unwilling to invest more is required. Increased public investment increases demand and quicken growth and also encourages private investors, as the market for their goods expands. Reforms: Are they leading to slowdown? Structural reforms are being taken by almost all the governments or they have been claiming to be doing for more or less a quarter of a century now. Since 2014, in particular, “the ease of doing business” has received great attention from this government. But, the economy today is still less regulated than it was in 1991. Labour market reforms have not been taken up yet in Parliament. Share of manufacturing may rise if the labour market is liberalised. Another fact is how the economy came close to achieving 10% growth in the late 1980s and during 2003-08 when the policy regime was no more liberal than it is now. It is also difficult to relate slowing domestic growth to sluggish world trade as data show 2016-17 to be a year of a major turnaround in exports. On the other hand, capital formation as a share of output has declined almost steadily for six years now. In 2014-15 it rose slightly. Is it temporary phenomenon? A few of the experts see it as a temporary or technical issue and think that its effects would soon fade out while others view this as a more serious crisis created by a barrage of supply-side shocks to the economy. However, the crisis is seen as a deep structural issue rather than merely a short-run one. Now the government has to play a key role and understand the economic realities and avoid adventurism in policymaking and implementation. Corporate sector & Industry criticize the Government Although, a concrete plan to address the problem is being developed in consultation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, a section of the industry and many economists have criticised the government for not being prudent enough to read the distress signs and for treating the slowdown as temporary and transient. The economy grew by a mere 5.7% in the quarter ended June 2017. In the first quarter of this financial year, growth fell to 5.7% as against 7.9% in the same period last fiscal year.
How can India come out of slow down? Leading economists and market researchers suggest following remedies to bring the Indian Economy on high growth track More Government Expenditure Government needs to spend more now to overcome the situation. Although the government has already spent much of its budgeted expenditure, it needs to spend more to spur investment and demand in the economy. An immediate boost without worrying much for consequences is needed by way of spending. Let Indian Rupee be weaker Even a weaker Indian rupee should not be a problem. Stronger rupee is hurting both the exports and the business. Imports are surging and they are eating into the domestic market share. India needs growth now, so there is no need for ratings as of now. Lower Lending rates The recently announced monetary policy of RBI has not given any relief to boost Indian economy. The economists now advocate a steep rate cut in the benchmark lending rates to allow for monetary policy expansion. The Reserve Bank needs to cut interest rates for banks, thereby making borrowing cheaper for the industry and spurring investment. Certainty in Business required More certainty in the business environment is required. Businesses should be without shocks like demonetisation. In fact, after demonetisation shock, there is an environment of uncertainty in the economy. This stops the Private sector short of announcing the new projects. There should be an environment of certainty that no such disruptive moves would rock the economy in the near term. No need for excuses: Acknowledge and spend in rural areas The government needs to spend more on rural areas. Increasing rural people’s incomes can drive up the consumption demand, which in turn will boost the industry. To create more demand the Government needs to spend more in rural areas, construction sector and the unorganised sector World Bank hopeful: Slow down to wane soon
Corporate Governance is the system by which companies are directed and controlled by the Management with greater transparency in the best interest of all the stake-holders viz., Customers, Employees, Investors, Vendors, Government, Regulators and society at large. India’s corporate governance regulations rely heavily on Independent Directors (ID) but in reality, they are the weakest link and quite a few corporate boards feature proxy IDs who toe the line of the promoter. This has led to many corporate scams in India such as Stock market, UTI, Khetan Parek, Satyam etc. In the above backdrop, SEBI set up a committee under the Chairmanship of Uday Kotak in this regard. The committee recommended increasing the number of IDs from the existing 3 to 6 members with requisite qualifications and competency; and also suggested strengthening the hands of the auditors to gauge the operations of the company in a prudent manner. The committee has recommended creating a roster of “Fit and Proper” professionals for IDs and drawing them as and when required. Banks & Corporate Governance: The major recommendations of Ganguly Committee are Boards should be more contemporarily professional by inducting technical and specially qualified personnel (marketing, technology and systems, risk management, strategic planning, treasury operations, credit recovery, etc.). Directors should comply “fit and proper” norms viz., formal qualification, experience and track record. The eligible criteria to become director of PSBs should be between 35 to 65 years of age and, among other things, should not be The recent slowdown in India's economic growth is temporary and is an "aberration" mainly due to the temporary disruptions in preparation for the GST. It will get corrected in the coming months. The World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is going to have a hugely positive impact on the Indian economy. According to him, "We think that the recent slowdown is an aberration which will correct in the coming months, and the GDP growth will stabilise during the year. We've been watching carefully, as Prime Minister Modi has really worked on improving the business environment, and so, we think all of those efforts will pay off as well." Accordingly, if the due corrective steps are taken, Indian Economy could come back on rails with a high growth achievement of 10%.
Background: Global GDP growth has been coming down (around 3%) over the years. The recent US-China trade war, currency devaluations by major economies and the volatile political and economic situations across the globe have been adding fuel to the fire. The Indian economy is also showing signs of downward spiral despite initiating bold and important reforms like GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), FDI liberalization, and better ease of doing business. Major sectors are drastically slowing down and layoffs are increasing. NITI Aayog opined that the current stress in the financial sector is unprecedented and urged government to initiate necessary steps to avert slowdown. In the above backdrop, the Finance Minister, Mrs. Sitharaman has announced the following slew of measures in August 2019 to take the reform process forward and to bring the economy on track. Banking/Finance Sector: Government announced upfront capital infusion of `70000 crore into PSBs to add liquidity to the financial system by generating fresh lending to the tune of `5 lakh crore.
Providing `20000 crore liquidity support in addition to `10000 crore support announced earlier by
National Housing Corporation (NHB), to the struggling Housing Finance Companies (HFC) to enhance their lending capacity. Directed the banks to pass on RBI rate cut benefits to the borrowers by introducing Repo or External Benchmark Linked rates to retail loans. Proposed to introduce online tracking of loan applications by customers of Retail, MSME, Housing, Vehicle and Working Capital limits with an aim to increase transparency and to improve Turn Around Time (TAT). Banks to issue improved transparent OTS policy to benefit to MSME and Retail borrowers with simplified procedure (Check box approach) Rationalization/Simplification of Taxes: Withdrawal of enhanced super-rich tax (imposed in the recent budget) on foreign and domestic equity investors. All tax notices to be issued from centralized system to end harassment of taxpayers. Start-ups will get exemption from “Angel Tax”. Pending GST refunds to MSMEs shall be paid within 30 days and future refund matters to be sorted out within 60 days. Corporate Tax: In order to encourage the domestic companies, the corporate tax rate is reduced from 30% to 22% for all existing companies and it is 15% for new manufacturing units that start production before 2023. The sharp cut in direct taxes has the potential to revive growth. MSME Sector: Amendment to MSME Act to move towards single definition to be considered. Use of GSTN system, in long run, to enhance market for bill discounting (TReDS). U K Sinha Committee recommendations on ease of credit, marketing, technology, delayed payments etc., are to be implemented within 30 days Automobile Sector: Increase of depreciation rate from existing 15% to 30% on all vehicles acquired from now till March 2020. Ban on govt departments lifted for purchase of vehicles to replace old ones. Government will come out with a ‘scrap age’ policy for old vehicles to revive demand for the already dented sector. Bond Market: Establish an organization to improve access to long term finance to Infrastructure and Housing projects. Development of Credit Default Swap market in consultation with RBI and SEBI. Infrastructure Industry has been reeling under stress on account of structural issues and delayed payments from Government/CPSEs, which need to be addressed on priority. Government announced that the issue of delayed payments is to be monitored by Department of Expenditure and reviewed by Cabinet Secretariat. Proposed to form “Inter-ministerial Task force” by Department of Economic Affairs to finalize the pipeline of infrastructure projects. Way forward: Hope, the measures initiated by the government, definitely paves the way to arrest slowdown and keep the economy on the growth path. Indian Economic Slowdown: A long term problem, how to come out of it? Indian Economy, no doubt is passing through a sluggish economic growth since 2016 as compared to earlier years, although Indian Economy is still showing positive growth at the rate which may not be considered as very slow, if we go by the global economic growth standards. The facts and background India’s Economic growth has slowed for 5 consecutive quarters beginning from late 2015-16 onwards. Now growth is slower than it was in the quarter in which The Modi Government assumed office. It could be serious blow for a government that had promised to turn around the economy through decisive governance. India’s GDP growth has gone down from a high of 9.2% in third Quarter of the year 2016 to 5.7% in current 4th
All four contributors to economic growth – domestic consumption, foreign consumption or exports, private investment and government spending – are hit by the slowdown. In the first quarter of this fiscal year, domestic consumption fell to 6.66% as against 8.41% in the same period last fiscal; exports as a share of the Gross Domestic Product was down to 19% from 20%; quarter of 2017. The economic growth rate is probably the slowest in last many years. However, Indian Economy as per global standard is not in recessionary stage. The UK and the European Union consider an economy in recession only when real GDP growth actually turns negative over two consecutive quarters and by this criterion, with a positive growth rate of 5.7%, Indian economy is far off from being in a recession.
and fixed capital formation decreased from about 31% of the GDP to 29.8%, signalling a slowdown in the industry as well. Causes of Economic slow down The cause of the problem as shared by some of the experts consists of supply-side shocks. Besides, three important contributors to this problem include Demonetisation & stressed banking sector, GST Implementation and problems in Agriculture sector. The public goods are provided by government and the government needs tax revenues to supply them, and these depend upon national income. Then there is employment. A demand for labour exists only when there is a demand for goods. So growth is necessary if employment is to be assured. There is not only a pool of unemployed persons in India to absorb but the country also needs to provide employment to youth continuously entering the labour force. The slowing of the economy is a source of concern as an economy that has been slowing for five quarters is unlikely to turn around quickly. Besides, it may not be able to revive on its own. No demand - No Investment: Vicious Circle operates Since it is capital formation, or investment, that drives growth in the economy, investment is an immediate source of demand as firms that invest buy goods and services to do so. It also expands the economy’s capacity to produce. The two sources of investment are private and public. The Private investment source is depressed as of now due to the factors cited above and is difficult to revive unless some external force is applied for example – tax sops, incentives for investment, creating demand for certain products through public funded projects among others. When there is no demand, supply has to be stopped due to piling up of stocks and production units go idle, leading to cut in labour force. It further reduces the income leading to less demand and further reduction in supply and stopping of production. Since, investment involves committing funds for a long period under uncertainty, the stepping-up of public investment when private firms are unwilling to invest more is required. Increased public investment increases demand and quicken growth and also encourages private investors, as the market for their goods expands. Reforms: Are they leading to slowdown? Structural reforms are being taken by almost all the governments or they have been claiming to be doing for more or less a quarter of a century now. Since 2014, in particular, “the ease of doing business” has received great attention from this government. But, the economy today is still less regulated than it was in 1991. Labour market reforms have not been taken up yet in Parliament. Share of manufacturing may rise if the labour market is liberalised. Another fact is how the economy came close to achieving 10% growth in the late 1980s and during 2003-08 when the policy regime was no more liberal than it is now. It is also difficult to relate slowing domestic growth to sluggish world trade as data show 2016-17 to be a year of a major turnaround in exports. On the other hand, capital formation as a share of output has declined almost steadily for six years now. In 2014-15 it rose slightly. Is it temporary phenomenon? A few of the experts see it as a temporary or technical issue and think that its effects would soon fade out while others view this as a more serious crisis created by a barrage of supply-side shocks to the economy. However, the crisis is seen as a deep structural issue rather than merely a short-run one. Now the government has to play a key role and understand the economic realities and avoid adventurism in policymaking and implementation. Corporate sector & Industry criticize the Government Although, a concrete plan to address the problem is being developed in consultation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, a section of the industry and many economists have criticised the government for not being prudent enough to read the distress signs and for treating the slowdown as temporary and transient. The economy grew by a mere 5.7% in the quarter ended June 2017. In the first quarter of this financial year, growth fell to 5.7% as against 7.9% in the same period last fiscal year.
How can India come out of slow down? Leading economists and market researchers suggest following remedies to bring the Indian Economy on high growth track More Government Expenditure Government needs to spend more now to overcome the situation. Although the government has already spent much of its budgeted expenditure, it needs to spend more to spur investment and demand in the economy. An immediate boost without worrying much for consequences is needed by way of spending. Let Indian Rupee be weaker Even a weaker Indian rupee should not be a problem. Stronger rupee is hurting both the exports and the business. Imports are surging and they are eating into the domestic market share. India needs growth now, so there is no need for ratings as of now. Lower Lending rates The recently announced monetary policy of RBI has not given any relief to boost Indian economy. The economists now advocate a steep rate cut in the benchmark lending rates to allow for monetary policy expansion. The Reserve Bank needs to cut interest rates for banks, thereby making borrowing cheaper for the industry and spurring investment. Certainty in Business required More certainty in the business environment is required. Businesses should be without shocks like demonetisation. In fact, after demonetisation shock, there is an environment of uncertainty in the economy. This stops the Private sector short of announcing the new projects. There should be an environment of certainty that no such disruptive moves would rock the economy in the near term. No need for excuses: Acknowledge and spend in rural areas The government needs to spend more on rural areas. Increasing rural people’s incomes can drive up the consumption demand, which in turn will boost the industry. To create more demand the Government needs to spend more in rural areas, construction sector and the unorganised sector World Bank hopeful: Slow down to wane soon
Corporate Governance is the system by which companies are directed and controlled by the Management with greater transparency in the best interest of all the stake-holders viz., Customers, Employees, Investors, Vendors, Government, Regulators and society at large. India’s corporate governance regulations rely heavily on Independent Directors (ID) but in reality, they are the weakest link and quite a few corporate boards feature proxy IDs who toe the line of the promoter. This has led to many corporate scams in India such as Stock market, UTI, Khetan Parek, Satyam etc. In the above backdrop, SEBI set up a committee under the Chairmanship of Uday Kotak in this regard. The committee recommended increasing the number of IDs from the existing 3 to 6 members with requisite qualifications and competency; and also suggested strengthening the hands of the auditors to gauge the operations of the company in a prudent manner. The committee has recommended creating a roster of “Fit and Proper” professionals for IDs and drawing them as and when required. Banks & Corporate Governance: The major recommendations of Ganguly Committee are Boards should be more contemporarily professional by inducting technical and specially qualified personnel (marketing, technology and systems, risk management, strategic planning, treasury operations, credit recovery, etc.). Directors should comply “fit and proper” norms viz., formal qualification, experience and track record. The eligible criteria to become director of PSBs should be between 35 to 65 years of age and, among other things, should not be The recent slowdown in India's economic growth is temporary and is an "aberration" mainly due to the temporary disruptions in preparation for the GST. It will get corrected in the coming months. The World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is going to have a hugely positive impact on the Indian economy. According to him, "We think that the recent slowdown is an aberration which will correct in the coming months, and the GDP growth will stabilise during the year. We've been watching carefully, as Prime Minister Modi has really worked on improving the business environment, and so, we think all of those efforts will pay off as well." Accordingly, if the due corrective steps are taken, Indian Economy could come back on rails with a high growth achievement of 10%.
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